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Value of Bitcoin Exchange Market Predicted to Surpass US$ by the of 2016 – 2024 (current BTC/USD price is $9,139.03)

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Value of Bitcoin Exchange Market Predicted to Surpass US$ by the of 2016 – 2024
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Bitcoin Price | Bitcoin Mining | Blockchain
The latest Bitcoin news has been sourced from the CoinSalad.com Bitcoin Price and News Events page. CoinSalad is a web service that provides real-time Bitcoin market info, charts, data and tools.
submitted by coinsaladcom to CoinSalad [link] [comments]

Thomas Lee (aka Store of Value dude) who predicted Bitcoin Core (BTC) would hit $25,000 by the end of 2018 says the market is wrong 😂👌

Thomas Lee (aka Store of Value dude) who predicted Bitcoin Core (BTC) would hit $25,000 by the end of 2018 says the market is wrong 😂👌 submitted by Egon_1 to btc [link] [comments]

Augur Prediction : The network value or "market cap" of Ethereum (ETH) (as provided by coinmarketcap.com) will surpass that of Bitcoin (BTC) on or before August 1, 2017 GMT - This is the FLIPPENING!

submitted by rythereum to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Exceeds Predicted Hash Rate Value as Bull Market Rages

Bitcoin Exceeds Predicted Hash Rate Value as Bull Market Rages submitted by n4bb to CoinPath [link] [comments]

[R] altcoin_max_price_prediction - Predict altcoin's max price reach time and value using neural network based on bitcoin exchange market data.

[R] altcoin_max_price_prediction - Predict altcoin's max price reach time and value using neural network based on bitcoin exchange market data. submitted by skyhenryk to MachineLearning [link] [comments]

Thomas Lee (aka Store of Value dude) who predicted Bitcoin Core (BTC) would hit $25,000 by the end of 2018 says the market is wrong

Thomas Lee (aka Store of Value dude) who predicted Bitcoin Core (BTC) would hit $25,000 by the end of 2018 says the market is wrong submitted by cryptoanalyticabot to cryptoall [link] [comments]

Thomas Lee (aka Store of Value dude) who predicted Bitcoin Core (BTC) would hit $25,000 by the end of 2018 says the market is wrong

Thomas Lee (aka Store of Value dude) who predicted Bitcoin Core (BTC) would hit $25,000 by the end of 2018 says the market is wrong submitted by ABitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Unpopular opinion - the economy has to become dynamic in order for it to have any longevity (and other musings on the progression)

Ain't no one gonna read this but here it goes!
The issue of progression has recently been gaining some traction in the community with Klean and DeadlySlob covering this topic recently.
Now any solution to this has an inherent issue associated with it - it'll be uncomfortable to someone. Whatever is done, it'll negatively affect someone, just by the fact of change alone. You cannot make something better by not changing anything. So anything you do or don't do, you will alienate a portion of your playerbase.
Early/Mid-game vs Late game.
Early and mid game is lauded, late game is considered boring. But why? For startes, firefights last longer, require more skill, movement, tactics and outsmarting your opponent. You value your life, you feel respect even for the shittiest of bullets. You have a feeling that the kill is earned. Guns have tons of recoil so you need to pick your shots. It's... I know it's illegal... but it's fun.
Late game however is plagued with a number of issues. Gear gets dominated by very similar loadouts that cover approx 10% of the gear in the game. There's nowhere to progress as you've reached the ceiling. The excitement from killing a kitted player diminishes as time goes as the economy saturates. People start being picky with their loot and only the good stuff brings any sort of satisfaction. The hideout provides a steady, predictable stream of income.
You let it run long enough it becomes a mindless PVP battleground.
Side note - the black and white fallacy of the makeup of the community.
Casuals vs hardcores. Rats vs Chads. Whenever a discussion pops up this dichotomy is always present. "Feature X hurts casuals but doesn't bother hardcore gamers playing 8h a day". No. Like anything in life the population of EFT is subject to the bellcurve distribution. There are hardcore sweaties grinding out the kappa within a week and there are also sunday gamers. Then there's everything else in between. Let's keep that in mind.
You don't need to be a streamer or play the game as a full time job to make money. We have a discord for 30+ yr old gamers with families and all of us were swimming in roubles and gear after 3 months of the past wipe. Sure it takes us longer than streamers, but still.
The meta
Taking weapons as an example. Different items have different stats (recoil, ergonomics, etc), some are obviously better than others which obviously makes them more sought after. There are also different ammo types for every caliber. Then lastly we come to the guns which directly tie into the first point, by their base stats and how much those can be brought down/up by attachments.
If you have a plethora of items that have different stats, there's sure to be an optimal loadout. If that optimal loadout is always available at an attainable price to the point where you can run it consistently, then there's really no reason to run anything less. This is the meta and at the moment it's basically a synonym for best in slot.
Appealing to a greater good such as gameplay variety is in vain because people will do everything to put themselves in the best possible position. If that means running whatever flavor of meta weapon that is - VAL, M4, FAL alongside top tier lvl 5 or 6 armor over and over and over and over again, so be it. We all know that's not the only way to get by in EFT, but all else being equal - top gear puts you on equal footing at minimum.
Trash contextualizes treasure. A rare item is not rare if everyone is running it. It's a normal item.
Gear minmaxing combined with a ceiling in progression create a situation where the game becomes stale, people get bored and we get chants for a wipe to releave the pressure.
Wipes
Wipes however, even at set intervals, are not the solution. Every wipe, in the absence of something fundamentally new, gives you (rapidly) diminishing returns. Doing the same quests over and over is an absolute drag. It's my 7th wipe and this time around I've really hit a brick wall with them. Now imagine doing them every 3 months. Maybe just do an inventory and trader level wipe? Yeah, that's just skipping one part of it and arriving at the same point but even quicker, considering how quickly you can make money.
The endpoint being - having enough money to run anything you want all the time without the fear of getting broke. Or in the abstract, having a big enough cushion to make any blow from a bad streak become inconsequential.
All of that is just a perpetuation of the same sawtooth progression. Grind, saturate, wipe, grind, saturate, wipe.
Side note - persistent character vs wiped character
I know there have been talks about having two characters - one persistent that's not wiped and one seasonal that is. On paper this might look like a good solution, but there are some problems.
POE players would have to chip in, but I reckong, that in a way this might become a form of matchmaking - the persistent character would be a mode for "sunday" players, while the wiped one for the sweats. I mean, maybe that's the way to go, but if the game is to gave any longevity, the persistent character will eventually face the same issues as the current game, it'll just take longer to develop.
Unpopular opinion - The economy is just a set of time and effort gated unlocks.
There have been multiple ideas to prolong a wipe, but in my view the fundamental issue with those is that they're based off the same linear progression - start from scratch and acumulate wealth until saturation. Some of these ideas include restricting labs till level X, locking behind a quest or just disabling it for a month. The problem with these is that it's just delaying the inevitable, while also giving a direct buff to those who get there first as they'll have the place virtually to themselves.
What follows is also the concept of "starting mid wipe", which essentially means that the gear disparity is so big that the further into a wipe, the more difficult it is to catch up. That effort is directly correlated with experience - the more experience you have the easier it is for you to reset or jump in midwipe. Extending a wipe potentially alleviates that by giving people more opportunity to catch up, but also pushes away from coming back/into the game if they recognize that it had passed their personal breakpoint where it's too hard / frustrating.
Perpetual mid-game
So out of all of that, a clearer picture emerges. We have to somehow find a solution to always have something to work for, but also not give the impression that you're up against an impenetrable wall.
That means that the game needs to pivot around something colloquially known as mid game. How would we define mid-game? That's another debate, but for the sake of the argument we could define that as something in the range of:
That would be the sort of mean loadout you can run on a consistent basis and you'd see the majority of the time. From the sentiment across the community, this seems to be the most enjoyable state of the game, where the sweetspot is in terms of protection and vulnerability, but allowing a lot of headroom for both variety and
Solutions
Now we must have to remember that there's a number of changes inbound that will alleviate some of the issues:
But those are sill far on the horizon.
The uncomfortable reality is that in order to truly balance that you have only a few choices. One is to go down the route of typical FPS tropes where every weapon type is perfectly balanced (i.e. shotguns powerfull but limited range, smg's low recoil, high ROF but weaker, dmrs powerful but high recoil and low ROF, etc). I don't think this will be ever a thing in the game.
Another one is to make attachments roughly equal and just attribute the differences to the tacticool visual factor. This would be realistic in a way, but would take away from the game.
The last one is to price them out. Literally. I'm of the unpopular opinion that endgame should not be a stage, it should be a state.
Dynamic pricing
I know I know, last time it failed spectacularly. However, that was a different flea market and the implementation was poorly thought out. Since it didn't have a pivot point to relate to it caused widespread inflation of even the most basic items and was prone to manipulation.
However the concept in principal has proven itself to work - M995 was essentially priced out of existence and forced people to look for alternatives like M855A1 or M856A1 or different calibers alltogether. Even the sweaties of sweats got a bit excited when they killed someone with 3 60rounders filled with M995. See where I'm going with this?
The execution was poor and poorly thought out.
But how about a different implementation? Adjust the prices based on how much an item is (or is not) bought compared to other items of the same item type. Most popular items' price (of a specific category) increases, while the least popular one decreases.
This could also be coupled with (or as an alternative) an additional rarity factor which would sort of specify how volatile the price is. Continuing the ammo example M995 would have the highest rarity factor and would be very prone to price increases, while the likes of M855 would be considered common and have a much more stable price.
Obviously this would be subject to long term trends and would not happen overnight. But the main aim is to dynamically scale the economy to the general wealth of the playerbase around a certain pivot point which we established before as the mid-game.
This would be a quite significant blow to the uberchads as they would unironically struggle to maintain a profit from their runs. And yes, some of them would still probably be able to pull this off, but remember what we said about the bell curve? It's just about making them so insignificant in the global player pool that they'd be a very rare occurance.
Global item pools
This idea has been floated around by Nikita some time ago but we have no ETA on this. In short - for some items, there is only a set amount that is present in circulation. For example there are only X amount of ReapIR's in the entire economy - spawns, traders, player stashes. If everyone hoards them in their stashes - thats where they'll remain. They don't spawn on maps, they're not sold on traders. Only until they're lost they get reinjected into the item pool.
This idea should be reserved only for the absolute top tier OP items. Something that you'd get all giddy if found/looted and you'd contemplate taking it out.
Side note, the X amount should scale to the active playerbase, which could be something like a weekly or biweekly moving average of people actively playing the game in a set period.
Insurance
This one is a bit controversial but also attributes to some of the in game inflation and gear recirculation. If you run a large squad, even if one of you dies, there's a high chance someone will survive and secure others' gear. And even if all of you die, something's bound to come back.
This might be a bit controversial, but I think group size should have a debuff to the chance of getting your gear back the higher the bigger your squad size, for example an incremental 10% chance for each additional squadmate.
Hideout adjustments
Right now fuel consumption is static no matter how much stuff is going on. What if the fuel consumption rate was tied to the size of your bitcoin farm and the amount of crafting going on.
Additionally hideout appliances could wear out and require maintenance, which would grant them performance debuffs like increased crafting time.
Dynamic stocks.
Right now stocks are predictable. You have the same amount of items at a set interval. Things like traders missing some items or not getting a restock due to broken supply lines, which can be cheekily tied into...
Dynamic global events/quests
Such as as getting rid of scavs on a particular location to remove the roadblock. These might be done per player or as a global event where everyone has to chip in.
Summary
The subject is difficult and solutions are not simple, but what I do know is that eventually Tarkov will have settle into an identity which will come with a sacrifice either at the expense of vision or mainstream popularity.
Thank you for coming to my TEDTalk. I'd like to give a heartfelt thank you to the 5 people that read this wall of text.
submitted by sunseeker11 to EscapefromTarkov [link] [comments]

Augur V2 is the next big step in Defi

This 6 month old Augur V2 video got me excited. I thought I’d share its value proposition, which I feel is currently being overlooked.
If you’ve been in the space for some time, you know what Augur is: a decentralized prediction market and the biggest (in ETH)/earliest ICO on Ethereum. Prediction markets allow for better forecasting by leveraging the power of incentivized wisdom of the crowd. V2 will soon launch with a revamped UI, cheap 0x orders and stablecoin integration. It’s set to become the most accessible, fair and open betting platform out there.
What you may not realize is its impact in the Defi space. Each market/prediction/question is represented by a token that can be traded in other Defi apps. This gives it incredible flexibility. Consider these possibilities:
This synergetic composability gets incredibly interesting when combined with other Defi legos. How about token sets based on bets between the ratios of active addresses on Ethereum vs Bitcoin? Why not make a Uniswap pair between a Real-T token and a bet against Detroit real-estate to hedge your position and gain transaction fees on the side?
Tokenomics
With growing interest over new Defi tokens, REP will no doubt position itself among the top. It’s one of the few that actually benefits from using a blockchain and has a utility that isn’t just governance related. Staked REP consensus is used to validate markets and collect fees in the process.
We’ve seen most successful Defi tokens pick up steam, especially in the past month, as mirrored by their sharp price increases: BNT +200%, KNC +90%, LEND + 70%, MKR +60%, LRC +140%. Augur V1 markets aren’t being used right now since the long awaited V2 is just around the corner. The repeated additional delays in V2’s launch date have kept its price comparatively low.
With that in mind, if one believes in the team’s ability to deliver and for Defi to continue growing, REP seems to be an extremely strong long term play. Whether you're a token holder or not, you'll likely see its contribution in many spheres of the Defi world. The above examples only scratch the surface of what it enables.
Disclaimer - I own some REP
For more info: Augur V2 Whitepaper Final pre-launch tasks The Augur Edge by pacific_Oc3an
submitted by Owdy to ethfinance [link] [comments]

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethfinance [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020

We would rather be ruined than changed.
-W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety
This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757
Secured physical gold – $18 913
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479
Bitcoin – $148 990
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484
Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under)
Global shares – 22.0%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under)
Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under)
Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
Australian bonds – 4.7%
International bonds – 9.4%
Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under)
Gold – 7.7%
Bitcoin – 8.4%
Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March.
The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year.
[Chart]
The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017.
[Chart]
There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf).
A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains.
As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here.
Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
A moving azimuth: falling spending continues
Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month.
[Chart]
The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending.
This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence.
The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month.
[Chart]
There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile.
Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations.
Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions
Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June.
These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey.
This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably.
A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades.
I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks.
Developing new navigation tools
Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns.
This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets.
In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years.
Mapping the distribution estimates
The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come.
[Chart]
Some observations on these findings can be made.
The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on.
Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome.
Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations.
Central estimates of the line of position
This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range.
I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence.
My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure.
None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data.
These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years.
As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive.
Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9%
Summary
The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions.
Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well.
Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias.
This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface.
Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half.
With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real.
Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change?
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I have been watching you for a while, you know. Wasn't sure whether to invest, but now I know that I must? (FUSION. Could have also prevented the Statera balancer hack?)

So this project caught my (and probably many other people's) attention at least once last year. Especially after the foundation had some of its funds stolen which saw the token's price tank massively. I kind of forgot about it until seeing it being veeeery low-key mentioned on TG again recently and it appears to have 5xed over the last few months, essentially returning back to its old price level, while still being relatively low cap. Also sitting nicely next to LTO (another actually professional, albeit slow-burning, project) on https://coinstats.network/, rising rapidly throughout the ranks over the last weeks. (The top three performers at the time of this post are VeChain, LTO, and FSN, as you can see at the right top.)
 
 
Anyway... I did some digging, and frankly, I feel like simply quoting Dejun Qian (leader of Fusion and also founder of BitSE, which later enabled the rise of VeChain), because he does an overall decent enough job at explaining the general gist behind Fusion -- a blockchain designed in particular with decentralized finance (DEFI) in mind:
 
 
Whereas...
 
 
...most of which (Time-Lock, DCRM and Quantum Swap) are patented. Although it should also be mentioned how the Telegram frequently questions the ability to enforce these patents. And depending on your personal outlook in regards to patents in the cryptospace, you could generally consider this a big negative point. Or, if you only care about money, a very positive one. With the latter likely aligning more with this sub's interests.
 
Anyway... Time-locking simply refers to you locking in any type of asset (real or digital) and then being able to lend it for some set amount of time (time-slice) without giving up ownership. This could have been useful in preventing, for example, the Statera Balancer hack, since you merely give up access to your asset for a certain amount of time while still retaining ownership yourself. E.g. you could have granted the Balancer 3 months of access to your assets. Whereas, had your assets been stolen by a bad actor within this time-frame as it happend in the Statera/Balancer case, you would still have received all of your assets back after these 3 months passed. No assets would have been lost on your end. So this mechanism, patented by Fusion, adds additional security. (Their Ticketed Proof of Stake (TPoS) mechanism works the same way -- You never risk actually losing your tokens forever. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FX57OwpNNMA )(Also: You are also free to correct me in case this doesn't actually work with Balancer's mechanics.)
 
In general, the borrowing of the (front end; now to some point in the future) time-slice finds application in finance what bonds, futures, options, etc is concerned, again making fusion a great choice for DEFI. To again cite Qian:
 
 
(If you're into this stuff, it's easy to just search for words such as "factoring" or "bank draft" or "clearing house" in the official Telegram channel https://t.me/FUSIONFoundation . Also in relationship to upcoming and borrowed FSN tokens, which can be combined to form whole FSN tokens.)
 
Another more concrete use-case would be, for example, the granting of access to a house's or car's digital lock without giving up direct ownership of these assets for a certain amount of time, after which said access will be returned to its owner. Additionally, it's also possible to resell parts of this access in case you no longer have any use for it. (E.g. if you license a software for 6 months, but suddenly decide to no longer have any use for it after a mere 2 months, you can resell the remaining 4 months that are left.)
 
 
Also worthy of mention might be some of the bigger Fusion-related DEFI (hype!) projects being built on the Fusion blockchain:
 
  • WeDefi, which aims to be, or allows for users to act as, a kind of decentralized bank; stream-lining lending/borrowing and other kinds of DEFI; will come as APP to the IOS and Play-Store for the Smartphone soon.
  • SMPCwallet. Will include DCRM dapps such as a multichain DEX, a multicustodial wallet, etc (fixing problems related to key exposure mentioned by Vitalik in an AMA linked later in this post)
  • Anyswap, a cross-chain/interoperability version of Uniswap. Qian suggests that it could in the future also serve a function similar to Compound, letting you pick up a collateral in exchange for the provision of liquidity. (Built on SMPCwallet AFAIK; a recent post shilling it here -> https://old.reddit.com/CryptoMoonShots/comments/hprd2p/anyswap_a_completely_decentralized_swap_exchange/)
  • An auto-loan platform by AXP
  • Realio and YAD Capital issuing digitized assets to be tokenized on the FSN blockchain. Meaning securities, etc. Currently they're trying to raise a $5mm tokenized fund. (Also worth mentioning here is that SolidX, who have experience and SEC connections working on a Bitcoin ETF, are part of Fusion's DCRM Alliance)
  • And more. https://www.fusion.org/partnerships hovering over the links gives some input. xDLT is built on fusion, for instance, offering an interoperable form of etherscan. (To my understanding...)
 
Then here's a great AMA you should read: https://fsnfeed.com/2020/05/23/on-23st-of-may-2020-dj-qian-ceo-of-fusion-foundation-had-a-live-ama-session-with-kevin-of-ama-series-stayhome/
 
And if you want to try out Fusion, you can sign up at WeDefi and play around with borrowed tokens and even earn full tokens by doing so. Take note, however, that only full tokens may be staked, should you plan to do so. ( https://www.wedefi.com/faq )
 
 
As for the FSN token value, it would appreciate simply by virtue of gas fees, staking, DCRM which can be licensed in exchange for 800k FSN, potential applications of time-locking relative to assets and the Fusion token (looking at safebet, for instance), etc... as Fusion is adopted. The staking ROI is currently at 23%. (I can't really make a prediction about the token's value development here, since the entire system and the potential applications really exceed my knowledge. And, being crypto, odds are that putting a price on it might be impossible for just about anyone.)
 
The best way of storing FSN is whallet, which can be used in conjunction with your Ledger's Ethereum app. (MyFusionWallet was experiencing synchronization problems the other day, but seems to be working perfectly fine again as of the time of this post.)
 
 
A relatively big negative point frequently mentioned by the community is the lack of marketing and the team losing its first-mover advantage, which is a concern the Fusion team has recently tried to address. As REN, for instance, which allows for but a portion of Fusion's use case such as an allegedly inferior version of DCRM and dark pools/clearing houses (and according to the Fusion community of course worse), has recently gone on a small bullrun of its own. Much to the chagrin of disillusioned Fusion bagholders. And I've personally also seen TrustSwap make an appearance, which appears to aim for the creation of a crosschain version of UniSwap much akin to AnySwap. (I'm not 100% sure about this, however.)
 
If you have any personal opinions, you are free to share them. Maybe you consider it obsolete in the future, especially if we do end up in a "one chain takes all" scenario? Alternatively you could be holding the belief that it can moon simply due to the #defi hype? Perhaps there's not enough marketing on the team's part? Or is FSN really under the radar, being ignored (and thus massively undervalued) for the time being only because the features offered by FSN are not yet fully appreciated in the still fledgling DEFI space, with ETH simply not being suitable for DEFI, and FSN suddenly making an appearance in the top 35 without anyone having noticed? Etc? Any disgruntled bagholders here who want to vent or add something I forgot? Now's your chance.
 
 
P.S.: All this is probably also a relatively superficial explaination that doesn't capture the project's value in a way people like Qian could explain it, especially what the use of time-slices (both front and back, and their combination), the long-term renting and valuation of front-slices, and the number of financial applications, is concerned... but I hope it serves as a good general overview, also what references to other DEFI projects is concerned. And it has taken off a bit recently, like many projects in this mini-bull run. So some people may no longer consider it low cap. But I'm still gonna post it so it doesn't go to waste. Lol. At the very least it might serve as general overview. That and the sub rules state "cryptos out of the top 100.")
 
Also disclaimer: I am holding a decently sized bag myself. (And I really hoped it wouldn't cross 70 cent so "soon," all things considered...)
submitted by sotaponi to CryptoMoonShots [link] [comments]

dxDAO aims to power DeFi protocols through decentralized governance

I found this article on internet. It's repost of it to help educate people about all DXDao advantages:
These are positive and necessary steps for DeFi. The new governance structures are intended to help coordinate across community stakeholders and make better decisions. These dynamics are influenced by the issues covered in Dose of DeFi, but I believe they deserve their own focused analysis.
Govern This aims to educate token holders and make them better voters. Emphasis will be placed on specific governance proposals and relaying community governance discussions on forums and weekly calls.
Governance is a coordination technology that has helped countries and companies build more than the sum of their parts. Blockchains are also a coordination technology, but for computers, not humans***.*** Govern This will track the development of the melding of these two over the coming years.
Like governance, Govern This is a work in progress. I would appreciate any feedback on format, topics covered or any other suggestions to make the newsletter better. Just hit reply.
The first issue of Govern This is below. Please click here to subscribe.
Thanks for reading,
Chris
📷
dxDAO aims to power DeFi protocols through decentralized governance
Gnosis launched a long-awaited DEX last week with batched auctions for low-liquidity trade pairs. The front-end, Mesa.Eth.Link is owned and operated by dxDAO, a decentralized collective that hopes to power other DeFi protocols.
While dYdX does not have any specific governance plans (yet), this tweet from dYdX founder Antonio Juliano is a common approach to governance.
📷Antonio Juliano @AntonioMJuliano3) 0x should focus less on governance in the short term. It’s way more important to first build something with a large amount of adoption that’s worth governing
December 6th 2018
3 Retweets62 Likes
The tweet at the end of 2018 was in response to 0x and its native token, ZRX. The project was popular but the token had no use case outside of governance.
This governance strategy – build now, decentralize later – is widely accepted in the space and is perhaps best exemplified by the A16Z’s Jesse Walden’s post, “Progressive Decentralization: A Playbook for Building Crypto Applications”, which the A16Z-backed Compound has essentially implemented (more in the section below).
dxDAO, on the other hand, maintains that decentralization must come at the beginning or else the core team and investors will have an outsized influence on the project in formal (token voting) or informal ways (dictators for life).
Background
dxDAO was launched in May 2019, spun out of a collaboration between Gnosis and DAOstack over managing the DutchX platform. dxDAO’s key governance design is separating financial rights to the DAO (DXD) from voting power over the DAO (Reputation). It used an Edgeware-style lock drop to distribute reputation to stakeholders in May of last year. Any user could lock up ETH or an accepted ERC-20 for a month and receive Reputation, which are voting rights in dxDAO, even though it is not a token and cannot be transferred.
Over 400 unique Ethereum addresses participated in the distribution scheme. Gnosis went through a pretty extensive process in July 2019 to “step back” from its involvement in the DAO, and since then, the community and dxDAO have aligned behind a mission of “putting the ‘De’ in Decentralized Finance”.
Following on last week’s launch of Mesa.ETH.Link, dxDAO is conducting a fundraiser or (“DAICO”?) to help fund its new slate of DeFi products, including a prediction market platform (Omen) and a privacy-centric DeFi dashboard (Mix).
Project launch is typically when a project is most centralized. Execution is hard and direction and accountability are important. dxDAO’s approach will be an interesting counterexample to the “decentralize later” trend and may provide insight into new governance strategies.
Click here for more information about the dxDAO fundraiser.
Here’s what is on the dxDAO docket this week:
Compound governance goes live, has it found Market-Protocol-Fit?
Since its founding in 2017, Compound has executed with an almost flawless record: no bugs/hacks, a major protocol upgrade and a big name fundraise (twice).
But all of that has been because Compound, the company, has executed well, but can protocol development and the growth of the platform be sustained with community management? We shall see.
Compound’s governance system could not be simpler. Anyone with at least 1% of COMP can submit a proposal of executable code. COMP holders have a 3 day voting period; the proposal passes with a majority of token votes AND a 4% quorum of all COMP tokens.
The 1% minimum for proposal submission is a good anti-Sybil mechanism but it greatly limits participation by small users. There is delegation, so you could imagine a “proposal petition” where you would delegate your COMP to a proposal instead of signing your name.
Compound is clearly taking the “less governance is the best governance” approach. This has worked surprisingly well with Bitcoin and Ethereum, which of course, do not have any formal governance, but those communities clearly have informal governance systems that make decisions.
The biggest governance question for Compound: who is the community?
Market-Protocol-Fit
Other Internet has an intriguing essay on the emergent order from new blockchain tokens and their communities. It is worth a read. It discusses the emergent iteration that blockchains – as a technology and a community – go through to find a niche, both in culture and product.
While it focuses on base-layer blockchains that launch with a token, the essay underscores the most underrated governance element: token distribution. It quotes an insightful tweet from Eric Wall
📷Eric Wall @ercwlA question that keeps me up at night: Is it possible to create a rubbish coin based on advanced bullshit, build a community of misguided fans nevertheless, run it centralized for 5 yrs, hardfork-copy the design of a real working project, keep the community and become a success?
keysheet @keysheet
@ErcWll was one of the first vocal critics of IOTA back in 2017, shortly before the project hit a market cap of $15B. https://t.co/2267e8LEpl Today, the project is down 99% and appears to be brutally falling apart. A thread:
February 13th 2020
17 Retweets163 Likes
Before Bitcoin could harden its code and find ‘Digital Gold’ and before Ethereum found ‘DeFi’ and ships ETH2.0, both needed to find a “a strong community of believers” in order to create a “virtuous cycle between headless brands and infrastructural build-out to progressively realize [their] initial promise.”
Communities are connected through a wide spread token distribution, Bitcoin through cypherpunks and online drugs and Ethereum through a global ICO (what Teo Leibowitz called “The Immaculate ICO”).
$COMP distribution
The biggest “news” has been details about $COMP distribution:
There are no explicit plans yet, but the widely held assumption is that the COMP distribution will be determined by the interest earned and paid by users on the protocol since its inception. This is a clever way that only incentivizes more use of the protocol and is hard to game because interests accrues over time.
But the question still remains, what will the COMP community look like and what values will it espouse? Can emergent cultures arise out of Silicon Valley too?
Here’s what is on the Compound docket this week:
Maker and wBTC, a test case for the MIP process
While Maker had planned to spend Q2 moving forward with their upgraded governance process, most of its focus has been on restoring the Dai peg.
For more on how the Maker governance process has expanded outside the core community, check out the previous edition of Govern This.
Here’s what is on the Maker docket this week:
Governance and Risk meeting (April 23)
Single Collateral Dai shutdown – the process has begun. A poll passed with May 12 as the official SCD shutdown. Just yesterday, an executive just passed yesterday to make the MKR oracle fee-less, which will help with migration. Many in the community think the migration of debt from SCD will do more than enough to restore the peg.
13 MIPs and 2 sub proposals – Core to the new Maker governance process is the “Maker Improvement Proposals (MIPs), which are modeled off of BIPs (for Bitcoin) and EIPs (for Ethereum). The two sub-proposals are to appoint the Smart Contracts Team and assign Charles St. Louis as the MIP editor.
The 13 MIPs are listed below:
- MIP1 (Maker Governance Paradigms)- MIP2 (Launch Period)- MIP3 (Governance Cycle)- MIP4 (MIP Amendment and Removal Process)- MIP5 (Emergency Voting System)- MIP6 (Collateral Onboarding Form/Forum Template)- MIP7 (Onboarding and Offboarding Domain Teams for Collateral Onboarding)- MIP8 (Domain Greenlight)- MIP9 (Community Greenlight)- MIP10 (Oracle Management)- MIP11 (Collateral Onboarding General Risk Model Management)- MIP12 (Collateral and Risk Parameter Management)
By and large, the MIPs codify many of the informal Maker governance processes. There is currently a request for comments period (MIP forum) and there will be an informal poll on Monday, April 27 on whether to proceed with the 13 MIPs and 2 sub proposals. If it’s a “Yes”, than an executive for an official ratification vote would start on May 1 and lasts for 4 days. If it passes, the official governance cycle will begin and the rest of the MIPs will likely be approved from May 4 – 6.
Other Governing Things
That’s it! Feedback definitely appreciated. Just hit reply. Written in Brooklyn where it rained all day. No euchre today, but yesterday was epic.
Govern This is written by Chris Powers. Opinions expressed are my own. All content is for informational purposes and is not intended as investment advice.
submitted by yaroslav_karpov to CryptoMoonShots [link] [comments]

What I like most about Cardano

Hey guys and gals,
I posted the following in a discussion on cryptocurrency earlier today, and though that I'd share here as well. I fixed one item (I had the epoch length wrong), and some grammatical errors.
Please share your thoughts or what you find exciting about Cardano in the comments, and if you are new here and just starting to fill your ADA bags, I really hope you find this useful!
What I love most about Cardano
  1. Slow and steady wins the race - The Cardano protocol is build on peer-reviewed academic research. This takes an excruciating amount of time to get things done, however what you end up with is a better product. They think first, then try and prove it wrong, and only if it is proven correct do they build. All of the code used for Cardano is high-assurance code, and no other cryptocurrency project is doing this to my knowledge. I truly believe this is why so many people on this sub hated on Cardano so much in 2018 & 2019. There were crazy high hopes for this project, but people wanted delivery right away and price increases. That's just not how things are done at Cardano, and I personally love it.
  2. Staking - Just for the testnet, Cardano had over 1000 stakepools. If this is true for the mainnet, Cardano will be the most decentralized cryptocurrency on Earth. Another project that I love is Tezos. However roughly 25% of all Tezos bakers are owned by the foundation, and there is nowhere near the same transparency when selecting a baker as there is when choosing a stakepool for your ADA. All the performance statistics, fees, and other info for stakepools is made available on the Cardano wallet, and if your current stakepool stops performing you can easily change to a different one. My rate of return on my ADA was over 10%, and rewards are issued back every day. On the mainnet, which launches in about 30 days, rewards from staking will be issued every 5 days, right to your wallet. This means you can compound your gains and stake more as you grow. Also, when you stake your ADA, they never leave your wallet or get locked up in any way. I am very much looking forward to staking through my ledger hardware wallet.
  3. Decentralization - Having over 1000 independent stakepools will make Cardano the most decentralized financial ecosystem in existence. And I predict that we end up with well over this number.
  4. Scalability - Full transparency: I own and love both Ethereum and Bitcoin. But my biggest problem with both is that they must bottleneck transactions when the volume is up. I remember a few years back when I couldn't use ETH for days because a bunch of people were feverishly trying to get rich buying and selling digital images of cartoon cats. Neither Ethereum nor Bitcoin can handle anything close to a billion users in their current forms. And I know that Ethereum is building Eth 2.0, and I'm excited to see what they come up with, however Cardano was built with this problem in mind from the get-go. Unlike our first and second generation systems, as more users transact on Cardano, it actually moves faster, not slower.
If you are really interested, the developers of Cardano have had their research on "sharding" not only peer reviewed, but published. Through sharding, Cardano could theoretically support over 1,000,000 transactions per second.
  1. Growth potential based on previous price - As a former stock investor, I am quite used to using this measurement in a bear market, for good or for ill. Whether it applies or has value here it to be determined, however for me it cannot be overlooked. Simply by measuring the current price vs the all time high price shows you that ADA must increase 16X just to get back to it's former high price ($1.31/.08). Ethereum on the other hand must only 6.5X to it's all time high ($1500/230), and both Bitcoin and Tezos must only 2X.
To be fair, this is not a proven method of measuring the value of cryptocurrency, but it is one that I am using nonetheless.
Hope this gets some good conversation going!
Edit:
  1. Most generous community - Two silvers and an ELI5?! Thank you guys!
submitted by GlowingViral to cardano [link] [comments]

Why Defi Needs an Index?

Why Defi Needs an Index?
Decentralised finance has grown immensely since the beginning of 2019 increasing the value locked in contract by 519% and crossing the $1bn mark in February 2020.
Investors who previously bought Bitcoin as their first crypto asset investment are becoming increasingly interested in the opportunities that reside in decentralised finance. This is compounded by the talented teams that are innovating and creating exceptional products in this area. As the crypto markets mature we envisage a greater emphasis on alt-coin dominance that is chiefly led by decentralised finance.
https://preview.redd.it/pmx4ks0gb7951.png?width=1128&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1e7397d89cca75a08646a2ccb7e75ffa48b7a62
Defi now encompasses the following categories…
- Lending and Borrowing
- Derivatives
- Exchanges
- KYC and Identity
- Prediction Markets
- Securitisation
The PhutureDAO’s flagship index at launch will provide exposure to the top 5 Defi protocols weighted by market capitalisation. We are calling it “PhutureDAO: The Defi Index”. This index we hope will become the definitive benchmark for decentralised finance.
The PhutureDAO Defi index will enable passive investment strategies that have previously not been possible through a single index token. Investors will gain diversified and auto-rebalanced exposure to the most prominent Defi projects. We believe that an index that tracks decentralised finance applications, should intrinsically operate by the first principles that define the protocols it represents.
These principles are…
  1. Open Access — Open to anyone with no minimum
  2. Zero Fees — No annual management fees
  3. Non Custodial — Autonomously controlled by smart contracts ensuring a high degree of security
PhutureDAO indices will operate on-chain utilising and integrating, with existing defi applications.
In the coming weeks we’ll be sharing more details on the PhutureDAO Crypto Index Platform.
Contact us
Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
Discord: https://discord.gg/frRD3Ck
Website: www.phuturedao.com
submitted by PhutureDAO to defi [link] [comments]

The Truth about Bitcoin?

Part 1/4 - NSA Connection:
First off, the SHA-256 algorithm, which stands for Secure Hash Algorithm 256, is a member of the SHA-2 cryptographic hash functions designed by the NSA and first published in 2001.
SHA-256, like other hash functions, takes any input and produces an output (often called a hash) of fixed length. The output of a hashing algorithm such as SHA-256 will always be the same length - regardless of the input size. Specifically, the output is, as the name suggests, 256 bits.
Moreover, all outputs appear completely random and offer no information about the input that created it.
The Bitcoin Network utilises the SHA-256 algorithm for mining and the creation of new addresses.
Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? What does Satoshi Nakamoto mean?
Out of respect for their anonymity, it would be rude to speculate in a video about who Satoshi Nakamoto is likely to be. The reality is, it's not important. Let me explain: Any human being can be attacked. Jesus could come back from the dead, and there would be haters. Therefore, the Satoshi Nakamoto approach neutralises the natural human herd behaviour, exacerbated by the media, to attack and discredit. This is a very important part of Bitcoin's success thus far. Also, from a security perspective, those who wish to dox Satoshi Nakamoto in a video are essentially putting his, or her, or their, life at risk...for the sake of views.
As a genius who has produced an innovation not just from a technical perspective but also a monetary perspective, they should be treated with more respect than that.
As for the name Satoshi Nakamoto, I would speculate that it is a homage to Tatsuaki Okamoto and Satoshi Obana - two cryptographers from Japan. There is another reason for the name, but that...is confidential.
In 1996, the NSA's Cryptology Division of their Office of Information Security Research and Technology published a paper titled: "How to make a mint: The cryptography of anonymous electronic cash", first publishing it in an MIT mailing list and later, in 1997, in the American University Law Review. One of the researchers they referenced was Tatsuaki Okamoto.

Part 2/4 - 'Crypto Market':
Most of the crypto market is a scam.
By the way, this was predicted very early on in the Bitcoin Talk forums - check out this interaction from November 8th, 2010:
"if bitcoin really takes off I can see lots of get-rich-quick imitators coming on the scene: gitcoin, nitcoin, witcoin, titcoin, shitcoin...
Of course the cheap imitators will disappear as quickly as those 1990s "internet currencies", but lots of people will get burned along the way."
To which Bitcoin OG Gavin Andresen replies:
"I agree - we're in the Wild West days of open-source currency. I expect people will get burned by scams, imitators, ponzi schemes and price bubbles."
"I don't think there's a whole lot that can be done about scammers, imitators and ponzi schemes besides warning people to be careful with their money (whether dollars, euros or bitcoins)."
Now, on the one hand, lack of regulation is more meritocratic (as you don't have to be an accredited investor just to get access).
On the other hand, it means that crypto is, as Gavin said, a Wild West environment, with many cowboys in the Desert. Be careful.
This is the same with most online courses - particularly 'How to get rich quick' courses - however with crypto you have an exponential increase in the supply of victims during the bull cycles so it is particularly prevalent during those times.
In addition to this, leverage trading exchanges, which are no different to casinos, prey on naive retail traders who:
A) Think they can outsmart professional traders with actual risk management skills; and
B) Think they can outsmart the exchanges themselves who have an informational advantage as well as an incentive to chase stop losses and liquidate positions.

Part 3/4 - CBDCs:
The Fed and Central Banks around the world have printed themselves into a corner.
Quantitative easing was the band-aid for the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, and more recent events have propelled the rate of money printing to absurd levels.
This means that all currencies are in a race to zero - and it becomes a game of who can print more fiat faster.
The powers that be know that this fiat frenzy is unsustainable, and that more and more people are becoming aware that it is a debt based system, based on nothing.
The monetary system devised by bankers, for bankers, in 1913 on Jekyll Island and supercharged in 1971 is fairly archaic and also does not allow for meritocratic value transfer - fiat printing itself increases inequality.
They, obviously, know this (as it is by design).
The issue (for them) is that more and more people are starting to become aware of this.
Moving to a modernised monetary system will allow those who have rigged the rules of the game for the last Century to get away scot-free.
It will also pave the way for a new wealthy, and more tech literate, elite to emerge - again predicted in the Bitcoin Talk forums.
Now...back to the powers that be.
Bitcoin provides a natural transition to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and what I would describe as Finance 2.0, but what are the benefits of CBDCs for the state?
More control, easier tax collection, more flexibility in monetary policy (i.e. negative interest rates) and generally a more efficient monetary system.
This leads us to the kicker: which is the war on cash. The cashless society was a fantasy just a few years ago, however now it doesn't seem so far fetched. No comment.

Part 4/4 - Bitcoin:
What about Bitcoin?
Well, Bitcoin has incredibly strong network effects; it is the most powerful computer network in the World.
But what about Bitcoin's reputation?
Bankers hate it.
Warren Buffett hates it.
Precisely, and the public hates bankers.
Sure, the investing public respects Buffett, but the general public perception of anyone worth $73 billion is not exactly at all time highs right now amid record wealth inequality.
In the grand scheme of things, the market cap of Bitcoin is currently around $179 billion.
For example, the market cap of Gold is around $9 trillion, which is 50x the Market Cap of Bitcoin.
Money has certain characteristics.
In my opinion, what makes Bitcoin unique is the fact that it has a finite total supply (21 million) and a predictable supply schedule via the halving events every 4 years, which cut in half the rate at which new Bitcoin is released into circulation.
Clearly, with these properties, it seems likely that Bitcoin could act as a meaningful hedge against inflation.
One of the key strengths of Bitcoin is the fact that the Network is decentralised...
Many people don't know that PayPal originally wanted to create a global currency similar to crypto.
Overall, a speculative thesis would be the following:
Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the most important entities of the 21st Century, and will accelerate the next transition of the human race.
Trusted third parties are security holes.
Bitcoin is the catalyst for Finance 2.0, whereby value transfer is conducted in a more meritocratic and decentralised fashion.
In 1964, Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev designed the Kardashev Scale.
At the time, he was looking for signs of extraterrestrial life within cosmic signals.
The Scale has three categories, which are based on the amount of usable energy a civilisation has at its disposal, and the degree of space colonisation.
Generally, a Type 1 Civilisation has achieved mastery of its home planet (10^16W);
A Type 2 Civilisation has mastery over its solar system (10^26W);
and a Type 3 Civilisation has mastery over its Galaxy (10^36W).
We humans are a Type 0 Civilisation on this Scale.
Nonetheless, our exponential technological growth in the few decades indicates that we are somewhere between Type 0 and Type 1.
In fact, according to Carl Sagan's interpolated Kardashev Scale and recent global energy consumption, we are about 0.73.
Physicist Freeman Dyson estimated that within 200 years or so, we should attain Type 1 status.
As a technology that, through its decentralisation, links entities globally and makes value transfer between humans more efficient, Bitcoin could prove a key piece of our progression as a civilisation.
What are your thoughts?
Is it true...or false?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oQLOqpP1ZM
submitted by financeoptimum to conspiracy [link] [comments]

What is Decred? #workshopwednesday

What is Decred? #workshopwednesday
https://preview.redd.it/i6gsthut28851.jpg?width=4969&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5d38dcf4c126de8df7f25cd07e0d5156aaf721b5
Is it one thing?
Is it many things?
Is it one thing that enables many things?
The truth is that true north is yet to be defined... and is many ways a moving target.
For some Decred is building a fairer financial system - predictable supply, transparently governed.
For others it is primarily a store of value - a form of digital gold that and a hedge to Bitcoin.
Some are most excited when it is seen as a DAO of DAOs - financial & organisational infrastructure.
(You can express a vote on twitter for each of these solutions here)
Narrative development
In any narrative development there are typically four key stages.
This approach gives structure to storytelling and applies pretty much universally - from business to filmmaking and yes, even crypto-networks.
  1. Insight - the big picture, what is the context to the story you are telling?
  2. Problem - within the context you have framed, what is the primary issue?
  3. Solution - what is the compelling answer to the problem and context you have set?
  4. How it works - so now explain how the solution works, from high level to deep dive...
This structured approach can waterfall across every aspect of a project, from a helicopter perspective to deep down into the weeds of a complex technology such as the DEX.
(Depending on your experience and expertise, helicopter and deep in the weeds are also subjective).
Over time these narratives will evolve, but the structure always stays the same.
It is also how Politeia proposals are generally structured.
Example:
Let's take the (simplified) original positioning of the world's most famous computing brand.
  1. Insight - Computers will change the world but...
  2. Problem - Right now they are difficult to use...
  3. Solution - Introducing Apple. We make computers normal people can use.
  4. How it works - An intuitive human machine interface etc etc.
You can see how Apple benefitted from Steve Job's marketing insight here.
He uses the same framework.
Let's check Decred's positioning (per website) against this structure.
  1. Insight - ?
  2. Problem - ?
  3. Solution - Introducing Decred, a community directed superior store of value
  4. How it works - It is secure. It is sustainable. It is adaptable.
Currently Decred's introduction misses two key steps - context and problem.
For many in the community those steps are self-evident...
There are two young fish swimming along who happen to meet an older fish.
The older fish nods at them and says:
‘Morning boys, how’s the water?’
The two young fish swim on for a bit and then eventually one of them looks over at the other and asks:
‘What the hell is water?’
— David Foster Wallace.
For newcomers and indeed for those less well versed in the history of Bitcoin (aka the vast majority of crypto) it is much harder to grasp the key stages of the story.
An example revison of Decred's positioning statements.
  1. Insight - The existing financial system is unfair but...
  2. Problem - There is no way to store and transmit value on the internet
  3. Solution - Introducing Decred, a community directed superior store of value
  4. How it works - It is secure, it is sustainable, it is adaptable.
  5. Details... PoW/PoS hybrid system, treasury reward, politeia...
The details above are on the website, but the narrative does not have a clear through line.
What makes this even harder to unpack is that the community does not agree on what Decred is for.
Let's outline two other potential solutions (aka what Decred is for).
  1. Insight - ?
  2. Problem - ?
  3. Solution - Introducing Decred, a fairer financial system
  4. How it works -
  5. Details...
And also...
  1. Insight - ?
  2. Problem - ?
  3. Solution - Introducing Decred, financial & organisational infrastructue for DAOs.
  4. How it works -
  5. Details...
In many ways apathy is a symptom of poor narrative structure just as attention is the flip.
Technology can be world leading, but if the story doesn't connect that doesn't matter. The reverse is also true - great storytelling will take you a long way, but if the aren't strong foundations to back up your claims, then trust will be shortlived.
Over to you...
How would you use this narrative framework to bring alive Decred's various solutions?
You can find some previous inspiration on Forward Thinking Friday here.
Start with what you think Decred is for and then fill in the blanks.
Consider this a wednesday workshop of sorts.
I'll add the various suggestions to the top of this post if/when they come in.
submitted by monsieurbulb to decred [link] [comments]

Is There Anyone More Wrong Than Tom Lee?

hi, this is a legitimate question because ive had bullet proof results for the past year and a half doing the opposite of what Tom Lee says (knock on wood)
so id like to ask if there is anyone else in thr crypto space who has a proven track record of being consistently wrong (doesnt have to be 100% like Tom Lee, but at least wrong roughly 90% of the time) because id like to aggregate these counter indicators together (as many people and their predictions as possible) to be able to have an edge based on the opposite of their analysis / predictions / sentiment
thanks all
submitted by getrich_or_diemining to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Do Perpetual Options Exist?

Perpetual futures contracts are gaining a lot of interest from not only cryptocurrency enthusiasts but also traders and members of traditional finance. Since 2017 when perpetual futures contracts were first launched, the derivatives market has evolved introducing options, ETFs and index trading based on cryptocurrencies. We have also seen the big traditional finance players like CME, Cboe and ICE taking part in this innovative and attractive world of cryptocurrency derivatives trading.
With the growing popularity of cryptocurrency derivatives products, especially perpetual futures contracts together with options trending as well, some traders may wonder what Perpetual Options may look like.
As always, let's begin by understanding what options are.

WHAT ARE OPTIONS?

Options are financial derivatives instruments where the value comes from the underlying assets such as stocks or cryptocurrencies. The buyer of the option contract is offered the choice to buy or sell the underlying asset at a pre-specified price and date. In contrast to futures, options contract holders give the right but not the obligation to buy or sell the underlying asset at the agreed price and date.
Options are split into two types.
One of the main differences between futures and options is that to buy the option, traders must pay for the premium. In the case of options, the rights are measured and priced as a premium. Something to note is that the premium always varies and this premium is what makes the options trading market.
Another thing to keep in mind is that options have a strike price which is the price set at which a derivative contract can be bought or sold at the exercise date. For example, a call option for 1 BTC with a 30 day expiry and strike price of $10,000 means the buyer of this call option has the right to purchase 1 BTC at $10,000 in 30 days time. Furthermore, there are variations in options on when you can exercise this contract. The two main types are the American and European options.

DO PERPETUAL OPTIONS REALLY EXIST?

Well.. There can be two sides to this question. Theoretically, it definitely could exist and many academics in the financial space are continuing research and studies on this topic. On a practical note, no registered options exchanges whether traditional or crypto have perpetual options listed. If this market place does exist, it would be likely to occur in the OTC(Over-The-Counter) market.
The main reason this exotic financial instrument faces difficulty is the pricing of the premium. American options are often priced with the binomial or trinomial tree model where it predicts its possible outcomes depending on the different exercise prices. All these are assumed to have some sort of exercise price.
However, for perpetual options, as it comes from the word "perpetual", it may never be exercised, making it difficult to have a good pricing model that can take into consideration the different types of predictions. In previous research, the martingale models were often used however would be very difficult to bring to the practical options trading, especially bitcoin options.
To help your understanding, I will set an example. Let's say the current BTC price is US$10,000 and you decide to buy a perpetual call option for US$1,000 with exercise price of $10,000. If the price of bitcoin does not go over the break even price of US$11,000 for the next 10 years or even 100 years, there is no reason to exercise this right. Let's say after 200 years the bitcoin price finally reached US$11,500, then this means the seller of the call option must have the underlying asset readily available for however long it may be until the exercise date of this contract. It is unrealistic to measure this in a single premium, thus making it difficult to compose a market place for this trade.
This doesn't mean it is impossible for perpetual bitcoin options to be released. An innovative financial instrument that is tweaked from the theoretical perpetual options model may be created. While options are mostly used to hedge against the price rise or fall, the options market is currently not as liquid as the perpetual futures markets.
submitted by MyCoinStory to investing [link] [comments]

48 next week, after a divorce starting from the bottom again. Is FIRE possible?

As the title says, my divorce came through about 2 weeks ago and I am starting from the bottom rung again. I haven't got any property, and my assets are limited. What prompted me to grab this with both hands is that around that time my eldest daughter gave birth to my first grandchild so it's helped me to focus on the future.
I currently live with my parents, as during the week I work away from home and have a rented property near my work. It's nearly 2 hours away from home so commuting isn't an option (plus the client pays an accommodation allowance so not all bad). I do plan to buy a house within the next 5 or so years so that's my short term goal but whilst I don't need to I'm building up my assets.
I've been earning average income for the past few years (about £33k). During my marriage I was very limited to what I could do money wise. The wife would rarely contribute to household expenses, and would spend rather than save. I tried to get better paying jobs, but security was preferred over higher income. What little money I had left over I tried to save, but more often than not had to liquidate any investments in order to pay for essentials - like a car repair or replacement washing machine etc. We rented, as neither of us were in a good enough place financially to get a mortgage.
Now, as I'm not having to answer to her and being free to do what I want (within reason, we have a 11 year old daughter) I'm in a job earning double what I got in my previous position. Although I'm a contractor, I'm needed for the length of the project which is at least the next 2 years so I'm taking advantage of the boost in income. And thankfully during the lockdown they still paid me, as it would cost too much to get a replacement in if I did leave. For the last year my priority was paying off debts, I still have some (about 10k) but much more manageable than they were this time last year. I could pay everything off in the next 6 months, but I think it's time I started preparing for the future. The way I see it, if I lost my job in a month I'd have no debts but limited or no resources to feed myself. But if I start following more of the FIRE philosophies I'll at least have covered expenses for a few months if the worst happened. I've been a follower of MMM for a few years, haven't always agreed with what he says on some subjects (Cryptocurrency for instance) but I feel I'm ready to start putting FIRE into practice.
The two things I'm looking to concentrate on right now are emergency expenses and investing. What I have in place right now is a Moneybox S&S ISA which I intend to use for emergency expenses. For those not familiar with Moneybox it rounds up the pennies for expenses in the bank account to whole pounds. As well as this I do a weekly top up and a payday top up. Approximately £150-200 per month, current value around £600. I also tried to invest in the FTSE 100 with the spare change I had, and used a Halifax Sharebuilder. I put in around £30 per month and each month picked a new share from the FTSE 100. I'm about £960 in and probably about a third of the way through the FTSE100. Thinking about it I should have invested in a tracker fund, but hey, it's been in place for a few years and it's made me put money aside so not all bad. Right now most of it is red, but I put that down to the current economic climate and I'm in it for the long haul so at the moment it doesn't matter.
I've dabbled in Cryptocurrency. I work in IT and I've always been very much of a geek, so it comes with the territory. Mostly proof of stake coins, but early in the process more 'traditional' proof of work coins such as Bitcoin and Litecoin. Somewhere I do have a few hundred Bitcoin but can I find the seed phrase I wrote down? If only I'd emailed it to myself! I'm a lot more organised these days, and probably hold £2500 in a mix of different coins. I monitor the price weekly and react if I see a trend but mostly leave this untouched.
I also have some premium bonds. Probably around £500. I only started collecting them last year, so far no winnings but again I'm in it for the long haul so I'm looking at the average returns. If it makes me my million then so be it, if it doesn't win anything at all then I'll revisit it but I see it as something I can quickly liquidate if I need the money.
If I had to liquidate everything tomorrow, I could probably support myself for 3 months. I want this to be at least 6 months, the end goal to cover potentially 30 or more years of retirement.
My budget does have some things I can't avoid, such as paying rent twice (a token amount at home but market rates for work, probably around 1000 in total). The accommodation allowance mentioned above is sufficient to cover the away from home element and more. There's feeding myself, a couple of streaming services and Xbox Live (essential for my mental health when in a 1 bed flat during the work week), car expenses (I have a Skoda Octavia and regularly exceed 50mpg, 70+ on A roads) and the finance and associated fuel and insurance costs for that, and some ad-hoc expenses as they arise such as clothing. Overall I could live on 60% of my salary, the more debt I pay off the better that gets. What's helped here is my obsession with Excel - I monitor everything. I go through bank transactions and enter every penny into a budget planner, so I know where I am. And those budget figures I use in YNAB to keep a day to day eye on how I'm doing, so far it's been quite accurate at predicting what's coming out and when.
I know it's going to be difficult, starting so late. But has anybody else been as late to the party as me, and if so how was it for you? Any tips? I'm happy to elaborate on any of the above if I need to.
submitted by dazza12 to FIREUK [link] [comments]

Bitcoin's Changing Tides.. When BOREDOM! July 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis Bitcoin Bright & EARLY! July 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis Bitcoin Rising With The Tide?! July 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis Bitcoin Range Of DECAY! July 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis BITCOIN TO $20,000 IN 2020? Price Prediction Explained!

Bitcoin price is positively correlated with the top 10 coins by marketcap with a value of 0.609, excluding Tether (USDT) and positively correlated with the top 100 coins by marketcap excluding all stablecoins with a value of 0.244.. Currencies that are positively correlated with Bitcoin indicate that the movement of one has a statistically significant weight to lead the other in the same Bitcoin Price Prediction 2023 – 2025. Using similar data to make our 2021 and 2022 models, we can predict price action in 2023, 2024, 2025 and beyond. Bitcoin’s ultimate goal is to reach $1,000,000 per BTC. Following weeks of no action in all Bitcoin markets, the largest cryptocurrency is finally on an upward roll. From the opening value of $9,162, BTC has hit an intraday high of $9,368. Bitcoin price predictions from pro-Bitcoiners and Bitcoin evangelists on what they think the future bitcoin value will be in 2020, 2022, 2027, 2030. Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction – April 7 The Bitcoin price is making a strong extension to the upside in the session today through $7,200. BTC/USD Long-term Trend: Bullish (Daily Chart) Key levels: Resistance Levels: $8,500, $8,700, $8,900 Support Levels: $6,400, $6,200, $6,000 BTCUSD – Daily Chart BTC/USD hit the intraday high at $7,440 and retreated […]

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Bitcoin's Changing Tides.. When BOREDOM! July 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

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